The 1 best (and worst) bet to make for UFC 278

The one best and one worst bet to make for UFC 278.

UFC 278 takes place Saturday from Salt Lake City, Utah, featuring a main event welterweight championship bout between reigning champion Kamaru Usman and the challenger Leon Edwards. The event marks the first time the UFC has returned to Salt Lake City since UFC Salt Lake City in 2016.

With a fight card full of heavy favorites and huge underdog spots, UFC 278 presents bettors with a plethora of interesting gambling angles.

Kamaru Usman (-460) is favored in the rematch against Leon Edwards (+320) at UFC 278

These two first met in a 2015 matchup that saw Usman pick up a unanimous decision victory over Edwards. Nearly seven years later, both fighters are now looking to prove that they have made more significant improvements since their last fight.

Since their previous fight, Usman has been on a truly dominant run. Usman has racked up five title defenses, with his most recent win coming against Colby Covington at UFC 268. Originally thought of as a wrestler, Usman has recently made huge strides in his standup game, with three of his five title defenses coming by way of KO/TKO. Prior to his five title defenses, eight out of Usman’s 10 UFC wins came by way of decision.

Edwards has been on an impressive run himself, racking up nine straight wins since his last loss to Usman. His last victory came against defeated Nate Diaz at UFC 263, and despite being a less active fighter than Usman since their first bout, Edwards has also made huge improvements in his game, while gaining five-round main event experience in the process.

Best bet for UFC 278: Usman vs Edwards over 4.5 rounds (-155)

This looks like a fight where neither fighter will find a finish. Usman and Edwards have both never been finished in a UFC fight. Usman is undefeated in his UFC career, while Edwards’ only two losses both came early in his career via decision. Edwards has not finished an opponent since 2018, and out of 14 career UFC fights, 10 have gone to decision.

Usman is notoriously durable and has great cardio to pair with a granite chin. He is a high IQ fighter and will not look to force a finish. His style is reliant on forward pressure that eventually grinds opponents down. Now facing an opponent in Edwards who has proven to be nearly impossible to finish, expect Usman to use his forward pressure and grappling to control the fight, while not expending too much energy in looking for the finish. Conversely, don’t expect Usman’s chin to crack against the less-powerful Edwards.

Worst bet for UFC 278: Alexandr Romanov moneyline (-440)

The main card of UFC 278 will feature an explosive heavyweight contest between the undefeated Alexandr Romanov and Marcin Tybura. Romanov has finished 15 of his 16 opponents, but despite an impressive start to his career, he’s yet to face someone of Tybura’s caliber.

Unlike Tybura, Romanov has only been to a decision once, which concerns me. Against a durable and cardio-tested opponent like Tybura, I’m not confident that he can push his usual pace if the fight goes past the first round. There is still too much unknown about Romanov, and at these odds, backing Romanov here on the Moneyline is a huge nope.

UFC 278: Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards takes place on Saturday, Aug. 20, 2022, live from the Vivint Arena, in Salt Lake City, UT. Follow along with FanSided MMA, who is on-site, for all your news and highlights.

Published at Thu, 18 Aug 2022 16:47:17 +0000