NFL Week 13 Against The Spread Picks Battle
Without a game on Thursday night, the NFL Week 13 will have 12 games on Sunday, two on Monday, and one more on Tuesday. I think it’s time to get used to MNF double-headers and midweek games.
The best matchup of the week will have the 8-3 Browns vs. the 8-3 Titans as they try to get to nine wins first. But also, there will be five great divisional rivalry games.
These are the best bets for the weekend of football.
Cleveland Browns +6 at Tennessee Titans
Both of these teams got wins last week and will now face each other in what could be the biggest game of Week 13 in the AFC.
Cleveland has an 8-3 record after defeating the Jaguars last weekend and the Titans also moved to 8-3 after putting up 45 points against the Colts.
The Titans have been impressive offensively and the Browns schedule has not been difficult, but this is a spot where I do feel there is some value with Cleveland.
Tennessee’s defense is terrible and Baker Mayfield is far more effective when he has more time to throw the ball.
This isn’t an endorsement of Mayfield as an above-average quarterback, but more how bad the Titans’ defense has been.
Myles Garrett also returns for Cleveland, offering them a much-needed upgrade when it comes to rushing the passer. In this game, six points are just too many.
Take the points on the road with Cleveland.
Denver Broncos +14 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos face the Chiefs in the second leg of their season series. The Chiefs took the first game at Mile High between these two teams.
Denver is coming off an awful loss against the Saints where they had no quarterbacks. The Broncos are firmly out of the playoff picture at 4-7 while KC has just a single loss at 10-1.
I don’t have much analysis on this one aside from a number that I just disagree with completely.
Perhaps the market just doesn’t like them much now, but this number was 7 points when KC visited Denver in Week 7. They won that game by a score of 43-16, but it’s still quite the difference.
This is one of those bets where you just need to hold your nose and place a wager. There’s too much value here and we may be getting some extra market bias due to their awful game last week against New Orleans.
Las Vegas Raiders -9 at New York Jets
The Raiders were embarrassed last week in Atlanta, but Las Vegas still sits at 6-5 on the season with one of the tougher schedules in the league.
On the other hand, the Jets suffered yet another defeat in Week 12. They’re still the only NFL team without a win at 0-11.
This is an excellent bounce-back spot for the Raiders. They’re a far better team than New York and one of the most underrated in the NFL right now.
Their defense is awful and the Jets may score some points, but they should have no issues putting up 30-40 points in this one.
They’re a machine offensively and should be motivated after last week’s loss against Atlanta.
I think this one should be at least -10, lay the points without hesitation.
Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. Saints
I know the Saints are playing like the best team in the NFC, but I refuse to think QB Taysom Hill can lead New Orleans to sweep the rest of the regular season schedule.
The Saints will drop a game or two, and there is no better place to start than against a divisional rival.
Atlanta is a team with many faces, I get it, but the Falcons were humiliated by the Saints two weeks ago in New Orleans. New Orleans sacked Matt Ryan eight times during that game, and it will surprise me if that happens again.
In the first meeting, the Falcons were not prepared for Hill. They were prepping for Jameis Winston, and when they received the news Taysom Hill will be under center, they weren’t ready. That won’t be the case this weekend.
Hill completed only nine passes against the Broncos last week and threw fewer than 80 yards and a pick. Sean Payton thinks he’s outsmarting everybody, but he might be playing with fire.
The Falcons have burned us before, but this is a good spot for them. Grab the points.
Philadelphia Eagles +9 at Green Bay
The Packers’ last few wins were against the Texans, the injured Niners, Jaguars, and Bears. None of these teams are imposing.
Green Bay’s offense is the best in the NFL in scoring, but I liked what I saw from the Eagles’ defense on Monday night, holding Russell Wilson and Seattle to just 23 points.
Nine points seem like a lot to cover by the Green Bay Packers in this scenario. The Eagles are still in the playoffs hunt, and their defense can match with Green Bay.
Too many points to lay down on a Packers team that has been inconsistent all year.
Take Philadelphia with the points.
Washington Football Team +9 at Pittsburgh
The Steelers will tackle this game against Washington with just four days of rest. In comparison, the Football Team will have ten 11 days of rest when they play in Pittsburgh.
Washington has a nasty front seven that will put Ben Roethlisberger in trouble. Ben didn’t have a great game against Baltimore on Wednesday, and the Ravens were missing key pieces on defense.
The Steelers don’t have a good running game either to counterattack the rush. This could be one of those games that overcomplicate for Pittsburgh in terms of matchups.
I get why an undefeated team is a 9-point favorite over a 4-7 opponent, but the Steelers have to be the least attractive 11-0 team in recent years.
Their defense is terrific, but their offense struggles when facing an excellent opposing defense, and that’s going to be the case on Monday.
Grab the points.
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Published at Fri, 04 Dec 2020 16:48:02 +0000